Friday, July 26, 2013


I was a little disappointed that Ian Clark chose to sign with the Jazz, but he when you think about it, it was the best situation for him considering he would be competing with fellow rookie, Trey Burke, for the starting PG job. He'll get thrown directly into the fire instead of getting a gradual education on how to become a NBA quality PG with staying power. The Jazz were under the cap, so they probably offered a little more money than the Warriors could. It's a shame that such a talented shooter and willing defender slipped through our hands. I hope he fails. Kidding.

Let's take a look at our current roster after the official waiving of Scott Machado, Kevin Murphy, and Dwayne Jones.

PG: Stephen Curry / Toney Douglas / Nemanja Nedovic
SG: Andre Iguodala / Klay Thompson / Kent Bazemore
SF: Harrison Barnes / Draymond Green
PF: David Lee / Marreese Speights
C: Andrew Bogut / Jermaine O'Neal / Festus Ezeli

Green is versatile enough to play back up minutes at either forward spot, but since he's slimmed down and gained quickness, it's not hard to imagine him getting more of his minutes at SF.

Andre Iguodala's extreme versatility allows him to cover 3 positions (4 if you feel bold on select nights). Initially, I was thinking he would start at SF alongside Thompson and Curry, but if Barnes' improved shooting can continue, it might be better for the team to have Thompson coming off the bench to spark instant offense. Iguodala can provide lockdown defense alongside the less than capable defender, Curry. Last year, according to, Iguodala logged in 59% of the total team minutes at the SG position and 9% at SF. Starting Iguodala at SG gives the Warriors an immediate size and defensive advantage most nights.

Toney Douglas is an underrated addition who's lock-down defense will prove invaluable vs. the toughest guards in the league. He's PG-sized, but SG-strong, so he has the ability to play alongside Curry and guard the 2 spot while running the point on offense to allow Curry to work off the ball. In addition to his defense, he can shoot the 3 very well.

Marreese Speights is another versatile player acquired this offseason. His natural position is PF, but he can easily slide over to C because of his size. He plays with toughness, can block some shots, and rebounds well. Speights' best trait, however, is his shooting. His offensive game may duplicate Lee's, but he provides a little more resistance on the defensive side of the ball.

The entire team with the exception of the three centers, Bogut, O'Neal, and Ezeli, could easily play multiple positions. This makes it easier for Mark Jackson to shuffle lineups to adjust to opponents' strengths and weaknesses or provide different looks to force the opponents to play a style they are not used to. I love the overall make-up of the team but there are only a few missing pieces I see.

In order of importance:

  1. Athletic, shot blocking, defensive-minded PF
  2. Reliable stretch PF
  3. True PG

Athletic, Shot Blocking, Defensive-minded Power Forward
Level of Need: 6 (scale of 1 to 10)

The Warriors are loaded at center with defensive players, but they are missing a PF who can be called on to lock down mobile bigs and provide good help defense and shot blocking. Lee and Speights are terrific offensive players, but their defense leaves much to be desired. Speights is a more physical version of Lee and can block some shots, but Warriors need someone with more athleticism. Barnes can step in as a small ball 4, but will have trouble handling the larger PF. Green is capable as a backup PF, but with his lack of size and mobility, he will struggle to stop bigs as well. It would be nice to have a rim protector who can guard the pick and roll effectively as well as close out on stretch 4's.

  1. Ekpe Udoh (Bucks)
  2. Malcom Thomas
  3. Jackie Carmichael
  4. Tyrus Thomas
  5. Alexi Ajinca (?)

Reliable Stretch Power Forward
Level of Need: 5

Green is the closest thing the Warriors have to a Stretch 4 and that's not saying much. He showed up big time in the playoffs after struggling mightily during the regular season, but as we saw in the Las Vegas Summer League, his perimeter shooting, as of now, is too unreliable. Lee has talked about extending his range. If he can do that, the Warriors would be vastly improved and extremely dangerous. Lee shot very well from the left-corner 3, but he needs to become a reliable threat from other areas in order to prevent teams from packing the paint. Until Lee does that, it would be nice if the Warriors can add a Stretch 4 who can space the floor for drivers like Iguodala, Bazemore, Nedovic, and Barnes.

  1. Austin Daye
  2. Charlie Villanueva (Wizards)
  3. Antawn Jamison
  4. James Southerland (?)

True Point Guard
Level of Need: 3

Curry has improved his point guard skills considerably since entering the league, but the Warriors might want to add a natural, pass-first guard who can handle presses and extreme pressure and get to any spot on the floor while keeping his dribble alive. Toney Douglas was added to the roster as Curry's primary backup, but he is more of a defensive specialist than a distributor who can command the offense and dictate tempo. With Curry's injury history, it would be wise to add that true PG and not have to rely on Douglas, Iguodala, Bazemore, or Nedovic as your guy to keep the offensive rolling.

  1. Peyton Siva
  2. Nick Calathes
  3. Stefhon Hannah (?)
  4. Jerome Randle (?)

Warriors have two spots open. It would be nice to address two of the three remaining holes in the roster, but it may be more prudent to sign someone with upside to a non-guaranteed contract and keep the other slot open unless there is a player the Warriors just have to have. There is no sense of urgency to address any of these needs yet, but as the season plays out, injuries take place, and a clearer picture of what's lacking in the roster develops, the Warriors can hang back, enjoy what they have, and let the cards fall where the may.

Tuesday, July 23, 2013


Thanks to Bob Myers and his team, it's been an amazing offseason highlighted by the unlikely signing of Iguodala, the savvy acquisitions of Speights, Douglas, and O'Neal, the drafting of the 'Euro Derrick Rose,' Nemanja Nedovic, and culminating in the crowning of the Warriors as Las Vegas Summer League Champions.

The Warriors are a likely to cut three of the four non-guaranteed contracts: Scott Machado, Kevin Murphy, and Dwayne Jones. Bazemore was considered a keeper going into the offseason, but his MVP worthy performance in Las Vegas elevated his stock to rotation player, securing him a spot on the team. That leaves two open roster spots. What should the Warriors do with them?

Normally, I would suggest signing a free agent to a non-guaranteed contract and leaving the last slot open for an emergency add later down the road, but there were two undrafted rookies that thoroughly impressed me in the month of July - Ian Clark and Jackie Carmichael. It will probably take a guaranteed contract to get both of them to sign with the Warriors.

Ian Clark

After a stellar start in Orlando, the Miami Heat urged Ian Clark to stay with their Summer League squad as they transitioned to Las Vegas. Fortunately, Clark honored his commitment and decided to team up with Bazemore, Green, and the Golden State Warriors. Clark proved to be one of the deadliest 3-point threats in the entire 2013 Draft Class and showed hints of why he was named Atlantic Sun Conference Defensive Player of the Year. He capped off a great start to his professional career by scoring 33 points on 7-10 shooting from 3 to clinch the Inaugural Las Vegas Summer League Championship Title.

After his MVP winning performance, Clark is in demand around the league. Shooting is a coveted skill in the NBA and GM's have taken notice of his game. It may seem that there is no room for Clark, but if you consider that drafted rookie, Nemanja Nedovic is more of a combo guard than a pure point guard, you can easily make room on the roster to develop a prospect like Clark. One can never have too many shooters on the team - especially ones with a great work ethic, high skill level, impressive floater, and high character. His Christian background will mesh well with the current group of guys and he would benefit greatly from joining a great organization that has proven to be able to develop raw, young talent (Bazemore, Green, Ezeli) through quality coaching (Darren Erman, Pete Myers, Jerry DeGregorio, and Brian Scalabrine.)

Jackie Carmichael

With the 15th and final roster spot, I would tap one of my favorite prospects of the 2013 Draft Class, Jackie Carmichael. I was shocked that a player of his size, athletic ability, toughness, and post presence went undrafted. Perhaps teams were put off by his age (23 y.o., born 1/02/1990) or were weary of his accomplishments coming from a small school. Nevertheless, he silenced critics with his strong summer league showing.

The Warriors saw first hand the potential this man has off the bench. He's a high energy, defensive big who gives it his all every second on the court. Carmichael recorded 7 blocks against the Warriors and had several other good games in Las Vegas and in Orlando. As with Clark, Carmichael's stock has risen and he has shown he is worthy of a camp invitation. Ideally, you would like to offer him a non-guaranteed contract, but the Warriors may have to offer him the same kind of deal it will take to land Clark if suitors are plenty. Dallas will probably offer him a guaranteed deal to jump from their summer league team to their NBA roster. It's going to take a sweet offer from the Warriors to lure him away.

Currently, the Power Forward position is void of a defensive-minded player. That is where Carmichael would fit in perfectly. He needs to develop more offense in the post, but he is ready to contribute in other ways with his smart play, defense, and blue collar hustle.

Playing time may be hard to come by for all of the rookies, including Nedovic, but rest assured, they will be able to build a solid foundation, be a part of a class organization, pay their dues with the Santa Cruz Warriors D-League team, gradually improve their games the right way, and develop into the best players they can be.

Starters: Curry / Thompson / Iguodala / Lee / Bogut
2nd Team: Douglas / Bazemore / Barnes / Speights / O'Neal
3rd Team: Clark / Nedovic / Green / Carmichael / Ezeli

Go get'em Myers!!!

Monday, July 8, 2013


Well it looks like the Warriors ended up working out a Sign-and-Trade with Denver afterall. They now have an $11M trade exception a $3.2M trade exception, and the $5.2M Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception. This gives the them loads of flexibility to strengthen the bench and build towards contender status. Even though they have the means to spend more money, they should remained disciplined with the contracts they pursue or hand out in order to keep the cap flexibility in 2014. That means the Warriors should (1) pursue quality players with expiring contracts using the exceptions, (2) target young, cheap, and movable pieces, or (3) sign a player to a deal which allows the Warriors to opt out in 2014.

With Landry gone and Ezeli on the mend until at least the rest of the year, their number one priority should be a backup big man who can play both PF and C.

Ekpe Udoh was a fan favorite when he was a Warrior and is a terrific defender who can play PF and C. He is not particularly good at much else, but has proven that when he's on the court, the team is almost always on the plus side because of the hustle and little things he does that don't show up in the box score. His help defense is impeccable, he alters many shots, is mobile, and he times blocks well. I suspect we can get him for almost nothing since Bucks are stacked at PF/C with Sanders, Ilyasova, Ayon, Gooden, Henson, and now Pachulia (recently signed).

Udoh makes
$4.5M 2013-14
$6.0M 2014-15  Qualifying Offer which we would decline to maintain cap flexibility

ESPN Scouting Report
Scouting report
+ Lean, athletic shot-blocker who moves well defensively and can protect rim.
+ Has 15-foot range but very poor offensive instincts. No moves or handle.
+ Very poor rebounder for size. Needs to reduce fouls. Makes free throws.
Udoh can't rebound or score, but man, can he play defense. Synergy again rated him as one of the best defenders in the league, and his teams once again had a major defensive improvement with him on the court. Golden State gave up 10.7 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court, while in Milwaukee the change was 5.2 points.
Opposing centers racked up a decent player efficiency rating against Udoh, but that's because he was busy playing sheriff. He ranked fifth in blocks per minute among centers and in the top third in steals. He's both a capable pick-and-roll defender and a very strong rim protector, and despite his inexperience his defensive instincts are all on key. He's a bit undersized for a center and at age 25 he may not improve much from here, but defensive value alone makes him a very good backup. Fouls, however, remain a problem, as he had one every 7.4 minutes.
Udoh would be a starter if he could play offense, but he's pretty bad at this end. He can make open jumpers and hit 38.4 percent of his shots beyond 10 feet, but he just doesn't have the instincts or ball skills to get himself easy chances near the basket. He's a low-mistake player, at least, cutting his turnover rate sharply last season, and his 75.4 percent from the line was very good for a center.
Surprisingly, he's also a terrible rebounder. Udoh was the league's third-worst center in both defensive rebound rate and overall rebound rate. This is partly because of how often he's going for blocks, but regardless he'll have to do better.
Udoh fills a need without adding salary that could jeopardize their 2014 cap flexibility.

Sunday, July 7, 2013


The Warriors maneuvered like crazy to land Andre Iguodala and sign him using cap space alone. However, if they could get the Denver Nuggets to agree to a Sign-and-Trade using the trade exceptions generated from the great salary dump to Utah Jazz, the Warriors would have a ton more flexibility and firepower when it comes to acquiring and paying free agents.

With a Sign-and-Trade, the Warriors gain the Non-Taxpayer's Mid-Level Exception and a Bi-Annual Exception. But since they are not signing Iguodala via trade but instead with cap space generated by the salary dump, they are considered under the cap of $58.5 million and ineligible to receive the aforementioned exceptions of $5.150 million and $2.016 million.

The Warriors currently have only the 'Room Mid-Level Exception' and Vet Minimum Salaries to offer free agents since no Sign-and-Trade agreement with Denver has been reached.

Room MLE = $2.575 million

Minimum Salary
0 Years = $.490 million
1 Year = $.789 million
2 Years = $.884 million
3 Years = $.916 million
4 Years = $.948 million
5 Years = $1.027 million
6 Years = $1.107 million
7 Years = $1.186 million
8 Years = $1.266 million
9 Years = $1.272 million
10+ Years = $1.400 million

Bracing for the worst and assuming no Sign-and-Trade brings the Warriors any of the bigger Exceptions, this is how I would spend the money to fill out the roster...

Waive the non-guaranteed contracts of Scott Machado, Dwayne Jones, and Kevin Murphy (acquired from Jazz).
Stash Nedovic overseas for the 2013-14 season.

PG: Curry
SG: Thompson / Bazemore
SF: Iguodala / Barnes
PF: Lee / Green
C: Bogut / Ezeli

Sign Brandan Wright to 2-year contract (2nd year player option) using with Room MLE ($2.575M starting salary)

Sign Nate Robinson to 2-year contract (2nd year player option) using veterans minimum ($1.27M starting salary)

Sign Jermaine O'Neal to 1 year contract using veterans minimum ($1.4M)

Sign Austin Daye to 2-year contract (2nd year player option) using veterans minimum ($.948M starting salary)

Updated Roster (with 2 open slot)

PG: Curry / Robinson
SG: Thompson / Bazemore
SF: Iguodala / Barnes / Daye
PF: Lee / Wright / Green
C: Bogut / O'Neal / Ezeli

One of the open slots can be filled with a 3rd PG like Charles Jenkins. The last slot can be left open to fill as needed once the season progresses.

Saturday, July 6, 2013


Kudos to the Warriors front office for pulling off the improbable task of clearing enough cap space to sign Andre Iguodala. They were able to unload the dead weight contracts of Andris Biedrins and Richard Jefferson along with the recovering Brandon Rush for a legitimate star free agent willing to take less money to join the Warriors. It cost them two future 1st round draft picks and a 2nd round pick, but they will likely be in the mid-20's range. Lacob has shown that he's more than willing to buy picks, so I feel confident that they will be able to recoup their lost picks come draft day. The fact that a marquee free agent was willing to take less money to join the up-start Warriors is a testament as to how far this franchise has risen since Joe Lacob and his team took over.

Iguodala has always been one of my favorite players in the entire NBA. I've long coveted him for the Warriors ever since Nellie-ball was the talk of the NBA and he has finally arrived. He's as well-rounder player as you can find - a mini-Lebron in every sense of the word. He'll do it all, including hitting clutch shots, zipping passes with point guard precision, locking down defenders, dictating pace, and helping on the boards. Iguodala is not about the stats, he's about making his teammates better and doing whatever it takes to win. A big part of what will help the Warriors win is his ability to act as a secondary ball handler to free up Curry. He gives the Warriors a fearless rim attacker who can draw contact and finish strong or get to the line - something the Warriors sorely lacked. He also gives them a 2nd lock-down defender to help Thompson stop the opposing guards and wings.

What makes Iguodala unique is his ability to play four positions because he is so versatile. He's skilled enough with the ball and has excellent passing instincts which allow him to play point guard. He has prototypical traits of a 2-way wing player at shooting guard and small forward. He even has the strength, athleticism, and wingspan to play small-ball power forward just as he did for Team USA during the 2012 Olympics. The addition of Iguodala allows for incredible lineup flexibility and increased ways to exploit the oppositions weaknesses and limit their strengths.

The Warriors are already much improved from last year and they've only just begun the 2013 free agency period. I can't wait to see who else they add into the mix.

PG: Stephen Curry / Scott Machado* / Nemanja Nedovic**
SG: Klay Thompson / Kent Bazemore / Kevin Murphy*
SF: Andre Iguodala / Harrison Barnes
PF: David Lee / Draymond Green
C: Andrew Bogut / Festus Ezeli / Dwayne Jones*
* non-guaranteed
** unsigned draft pick

2012-13 Game Log

Related Links

Adam Lauridsen: Iguodala to the Warriors — Happy Independence Day
Tim Kawakami: The opportunistic, hungry, frenetic Warriors’ front office: Iguodala now, who knows what comes next
Denver Post: Andre Iguodala leaves Denver Nuggets to join Golden State Warriors for $48 million
Marcus Thompson II: Golden State Warriors obtain Andre Iguodala

Sunday, June 30, 2013


Every year, the Warriors field one of the top Summer League teams because every year, they seem have a lottery pick to showcase. This year, when an actual Las Vegas Summer League Title is at stake, they won't have the highly rated rookie class they're used to seeing. Their only draft pick, Nemanja Nedovic, may not even play due to Serbian National Team commitments. Festus Ezeli was supposed to participate, but recent surgery keeps him out until the end of 2013. Nonetheless, the Warriors are able to field a respectable team headlined by 2nd year players and a few interesting prospects fighting for NBA roster spots.

Kent Bazemore - Old Dominion
SG/PG: 6'-5", 201 lbs, 07/01/89
6'-11.5" wingspan

Ian Clark - Belmont
SG: 6'-3", 175 lbs., 03/17/91
6'-6.5" wingspan, 8'-2.5" standing reach

D.J. Cooper - Ohio
PG: 6'-0", 173 lbs, 12/06/90
6'-5" wingspan, 7'-11.5" standing reach

Dwayne Davis - Southern Miss
SF: 6'-5", 224 lbs., 11/27/89

Michael Eric - Temple
PF/C: 6'-11", 240 lbs. 25 y.o.

Lance Goulborne - Vanderbilt
SF/PF: 6'-8", 230 lbs.. 04/06/89

Draymond Green - Michigan State
SF/PF: 6'-7", 230 lbs., 03/04/90
7'-1.25" wingspan, 8'-9" standing reach

Cam Jones - Northern Arizona
SG/PG: 6'-4", 185 lbs. 05/04/89

Dwayne Jones - St. Joseph's
C: 6'-11", 248 lbs., 06/09/83
7'-2.75" wingspan, 9'-0.5" standing reach

Scott Machado - Iona
PG: 6'-1", 205 lbs. 06/08/90
6'-3" wingspan, 7'-10" standing reach

Gary McGhee- Pittsburgh
C: 6'-11", 250 lbs., 10/28/88
7'-2" wingspan, 8'-11.25" standing reach

Nemanja Nedovic - Serbia
PG/SG: 6'-5", 224 lbs., 06/16/91
6'-6.75" wingspan, 8'-3" standing reach

Craig Smith - Boston College
PF: 6'-7", 265 lbs., 11/11/83
6'-9.5" wingspan, 8'-7.5" standing reach

James Southerland - Syracuse
SF: 6'-8", 215 lbs., 04/28/90
7'-1" wingspan, 8'-10" standing reach

Alex Young - IUPUI
SF: 6'-6", 212 lbs., 10/17/89
6'-11" wingspan

Of the four player currently on the Warriors roster (Green, Bazemore, Machado, and Dwayne Jones), only two are likely to remain. Jones is a virtual lock to be cut before his contract becomes guaranteed on August 1st. He is scheduled to make $1.1M and the Warriors need every bit of cap space to fill out their roster. Same situation applies to Machado to a lesser degree. He plays a position of need, is rather skilled as a distributor, and his contract is not high ($789K), but he needs to prove that he's worth keeping.

Machado's biggest competition comes from undrafted free agent 6'-0" PG, D.J. Cooper of Ohio. He's a dynamic, quick true PG with incredible court vision and creativity. Unlike Machado, who worked hard to turn himself into a functioning true PG, it all comes natural to Cooper. ESPN's WARP stat has him ranked as the 8th overall prospect in this year's draft. He will start off playing for the Magic's summer league team, so if he does well in Orlando, Cooper may end up signing with them before he gets to dawn a Warriors jersey.

James Southerland was ranked 30th overall according to the ESPN WARP stat. He had a terrific senior season from distance and used his length to record 1.5 spg, .9 bpg, and an impressive 23.91 PER. The Warriors are always looking for size and Southerland brings it at the SF position. He's a good candidate for a stretch 4 in small ball situations.

PG: Machado / Cooper / C. Jones
SG: Bazemore / Clark / Nedovic?
SF: Southerland / Young / Davis
PF: Green / Smith / Goulbourne
C: D. Jones / McGhee / Eric

Saturday, June 29, 2013


Here's an article from the Santa Cruz Sentinel detailing how Scott Machado has been spending his offseason:

D-League Basketball: Former Santa Cruz Warriors guard Scott Machado looking to make impact in summer league

Although we need Jarret Jack to re-sign, it may not be the end of the world if Machado and Nemanja Nedovic ended up being the backups PG's to Curry.

They are two very different types of players who can be trotted out onto the court, depending on the situation. One is a true PG and the other is a fearless, athletic attacker who plays above the rim and can create for others on the drive and dish.

Stakes are high for Machado. If he does really well in Summer League (high efficiency and leads team to Finals), he might be enough - otherwise, Warriors need to look elsewhere. It may sound like a risky proposition going with two young backup PG's, but if they can team up to give Curry 15 minutes of rest per game, than it may be enough. With Brandon Rush back and Kent Bazemore improving, there won' t be as much a need for Curry to slide to SG. Curry can play almost exclusively at PG until Nedovic gets up to speed. If, by the trade deadline, it's clear the Warriors need to upgrade at backup PG, they can make a move.

Hopefully, Nedovic can play Summer League so we can see how far he is to contributing quality minutes. Serbian Nationals Team obligations may force him to miss the valuable evaluation phase in Las Vegas. In addition, Nedovic and the Warriors have to agree to a buyout from his current team,  Lietuvos Rytas Vilnius. Regardless of how ready he is now, he needs to be signed so his development can start under the Warriors' close watch as soon as possible.

The plus side of going with Machado and Nedovic is that we can use more of the available salary on a big man who's able to backup PF and C. More importantly, the Warriors will be able to minimize additional salary going into the 2014 offseason, allowing them to be major players in the Free Agency market.

PG: Curry / Machado / Nedovic
SG: Thompson / Bazemore
SF: Barnes / Rush / Richardson
PF: Lee / FA / Green
C: Bogut / Ezeli / Biedrins

J.J. Hickson
Marreese Speights
Andray Blatche
Elton Brand
Ivan Johnson
Byron Mullens

Some of those names may seem beyond reach, but the Warriors appear to be under the tax apron enough to use the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception of $5.150 million. Landry took a paycut, so one of the first three on the list may do the same.

If Machado can show the Warriors that he is capable of manning the backup PG position, it opens up a lot of options for them this offseason.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013


6' 2", 185 lbs
Born Feb 24, 1988 in France (Age: 25)
Drafted 2009: 1st Rnd, 25th by OKC

Made just $2,227,333 last season. Restricted Free Agent, but no way Mavs will match while going after Dwight Howard. Beaubois has his flaws, but perhaps a year under Mark Jackson, playing behind Stephan Curry, and a change of scenery will get his career on track.

Massive 6'10" wingspan, athletic, among the top PG's in blocks and rebounds.

With Rush coming back and Bazemore working on his game, the Warriors could play Steph almost exclusively at PG and give the backup minutes to Beaubois. When matchups are favorable, Beaubois and Curry can both play on the floor for a small ball look with better ball handling and movement.

ESPN Scouting Report:

+ Speedy guard who can score. Penetrates but doesn't see court well. 
+ Gets out of control on drives. Inconsistent shooter. Good rebounder for size. 
+ Active, athletic defender but needs to improve strength and fundamentals. 

Beaubois intrigued everybody with an impressive rookie year but has gone sideways since, doing just enough to stay relevant but not quite enough to give his career any traction. The problem starts with his being a classic "2 in a 1's body" -- unless he can improve his passing numbers some more; last season he was 47th among point guards in pure point rating. 

Beaubois can score, but he's not efficient enough. Last season he averaged 16.4 points per 40 minutes, which was higher than his previous two, but he neither makes 3s nor draws fouls, resulting in subpar true shooting percentages. Last season Beauhois shot 28.8 percent on 3s and 36.2 percent on long 2s, and the season before wasn't any better. Meanwhile, he was in the bottom third of point guards in free throw rate. 

The tantalizing part is that if he did either of these things -- create for teammates or convert his own shots -- just a little bit better, he'd have some real value. But right now he's just another low-efficiency creator. 

Whether he can become more is an open question. His instincts as a point guard aren't great, I'm not sure his left hand is up to snuff, and while I wouldn't call his jumper broken it's not exactly fluid either. 

Defensively it's a similar story. Beaubois is an impressive athlete who led all point guards in blocks per minute and ranked fourth in rebound rate, but his overall results weren't that great. He was overmatched size-wise when asked to guard 2s, and his plus-minus and Synergy numbers were poor.

If the Warriors want to go cheap, they could probably get Beaubois and Earl Clark or Brandan Wright for a total under $5M. It cuts into the 2014 cap space a bit, but with another year off Lee's deal, it may be easier to trade Lee to create additional cap space to pursue a max salary free agent.

Monday, June 10, 2013


Although the Warriors are a long-shot to acquire Howard, I keep going back and forth on this, and it's giving me a headache.

Does the roster look better in the next 4 years by making the trade or standing pat?

Consider what we are losing: Barnes (or Klay), Bogut, draft picks (likely 2014), cap flex.

We gain the #1 center when healthy, but what if Bogut comes back to Denver Series form? Frankly, I'll take a healthy Bogut over a healthy Howard because Bogut is such a more well-rounded player, plays with aggression, and is Aussie tough. I understand that he probably won't ever regain his offensive game of old, but if he can change the game enough like he did vs. the Nuggets, that's plenty. With a summer of rest and proper healing, it's very possible that he does return much better than what we've seen as a Warrior.

With Howard (assuming Barnes is traded)
PG: Curry
SG: Thompson
SF: Rush / Green
PF: Lee
C: Howard / Ezeli

* that's an incredible starting 4
* legit Finals contender
* capped out in 2014
* no 2014 draft pick, likely other future picks as well
* have to rely on contract exceptions to add quality depth to that roster
* buyers remorse if Howard's back and shoulder issues return
* regret if Barnes becomes an All-Star and things don't turn out as planned with Howard

Standing Pat
PG: Curry
SG: Thompson
SF: Barnes / Rush
PF: Lee / Green
C: Bogut / Ezeli

* 2014 draft will be historically good
* we'll have greater cap flex to upgrade the bench
* in the conversation for contender IF key players remain healthy
* we'll have max money if we decide not to retain Bogut and about $12M to spend if we do

Although the Warriors would be instant contenders if they pulled off a Howard deal, I wouldn't be mad if we didn't come to fruition. There are a lot more options on the table if the Warriors stand pat. We'll be able to bring back the key players and add to it in 2014. If they continue to get better as expected, adding a star player to the mix in the $12M range would make this team a serious contender. The Warriors are now considered an up-and-coming franchise and with all things equal, the better free agents will choose to sign here.

We'll be able to watch Barnes grow and develop his game as a Warrior. Admittedly, I wasn't convinced he had the 'it' factor when they drafted him because he looked too mechanical on the court, didn't rebound consistently well, didn't have a high assist rate, and disappeared at times. As his rookie year progressed, he became more confident in going to the rim, his shot began to fall in big games, and his freakish athleticism began to translate on the floor in the form of good defense, blow-bys, and thunderous dunks. All the typical signs of a struggling rookie disappeared while playing on one of  the biggest stages the NBA has to offer.

Going for a title with Howard is less of a gamble than going after a title with the the group we have (plus cap space and draft picks). But, if the gamble that the Bogut gives us what he showed vs. Denver, Rush returns to form, internal development of Curry, Thompson, Barnes, Green, and Ezeli take place, and the Front Office target the right players and make the right moves....this team is set to make a more sustainable push towards the ultimate goal, an NBA Title.