TRADE MONTA NOW

My guess is Lacob is scared to death of missing the playoffs again next year.

That's why he's hanging on to Monta barring a trade for equal value. He wants to keep the status quo and add a free agent Big, like Kaman or Kwame again this offseason. Lacob will not settle for a step backward until he gives the fans a taste of the playoffs first. What he doesn't realize is that the longer he delays a change, the more time is wasted muddling in mediocrity and STRUGGLING just to make the playoffs. The current formula has proven not to work (undersized backcourt + Lee) and it needs to be reworked. Even if you shore up the Center and Small Forward positions with players who can defend and rebound, there is still no guarantee that the Warriors will make the playoffs. Sticking with the status quo and making a few tweaks is not going to help you build this team into a contender.

Contrary to what Lacob may think, I think losing Monta will actually make the Warriors better regardless of who they get back in return. The ball will move more, offense will be more free-flowing, defense will improve, player growth will accelerate, and a more team oriented brand of basketball will be played. Look at what Lin was able to do playing alongside a bunch of scrubs and Chandler. It's not always about talent, but how the pieces fit together.

Trade Monta for any combination of a mid/late 1st Round pick, young big man prospect, expirings, Biedrins dump, or impact big man. There is no excuse for NOT making a deal. The fans are tired of the same old approach and are dying for a new direction. Not making a trade will be a big blow to the fan's confidence in the Front Offices' ability to do their job. Get what you can from Orlando, a contender looking to add scoring, or a team with room to take on his contract. Do not dismiss a deal just because you aren't getting an All-Star talent back in return. Reality is that you will be lucky to find a team that will value Monta as much as the Warriors Front Office does.

Trade Monta Now.

HYPOTHETICAL TRADE: ANDRIS BIEDRINS FOR TYRUS THOMAS

Bobcats save $8.1M overall in this trade (huge for a small market team) and we get an additional $1M in cap space next season. The Bobcats are rumored to be considering using the amnesty on Tyrus Thomas, so they would be trading their perceived garbage for our garbage. The change of scenery could be good for both players. 

Tyrus is having the worst year of his career, so now would be a time to buy low. I see him as a rich man's Dominic McGuire - terrific rebounder, unbelievable athleticism, great length, and a knack for spectacular plays that get the crowd and team pumped (Nate Robinson-like via dunks and blocks). He could be a great compliment to Lee playing at C. Tyrus will also be able to cover up some of the defensive mistakes from our small backcourt. Thing is...if we do this, we go small, run, and we gun hard for the playoffs. Bye-bye lotto pick.

 PG: Curry / Robinson / Jenkins
SG: Ellis / Thompson
SF: D. Wright / Rush / Gerald Green*
PF: Thomas / McGuire / C. Wright
 C: Lee / Udoh / Tyler *d-league call-up

 ESPN Scouting Report
6'10", 225 lbs, born 8/17/86 (25 y.o.) 
+ High-energy shot-blocker and finisher. Long, athletic but slender big man. 
+ Can make midrange Js and finish at rim, but makes bad decisions. Weak handle.
+ Mistake-prone defender.


Has great tools but not always in the right spot. While the Bobcats were busy starting Boris Diaw and Kwame Brown in the frontcourt, Thomas was leading the team in PER and had one of the best plus-minus marks on the roster, but he averaged only 21 minutes a game. Even missing half the season with injuries, this was easily his best campaign as a pro. Thomas averaged nearly a point every two minutes, showcasing for the first time in his career the requisite finishing skills to take advantage of his considerable athleticism. While Thomas shot well around the rim, it was equally encouraging to see him knock down 41.6 percent of his shots beyond 10 feet; these comprised half his shots and gave him a half-court role when he wasn't dunking on people. 


Thomas is still less than refined as a ballhandler. He catches the ball thinking only of scoring and doesn't see the rest of the floor, plus he's a weak dribbler and can get out of control. Only four power forwards had a worse Pure Point Rating, offsetting some of the scoring impact. Thomas also had trouble staying on the floor, as he fouled once every 7.6 minutes -- partly because his skinny build puts him in physical mismatches. 


However, Thomas did defend and rebound. While he makes mistakes at that end, he offsets them with his athleticism. Thomas blocked 3.07 shots per 40 minutes, ranking second among power forwards, and was also among the leaders at his position in steals and rebounds. The Bobcats gave up 5.25 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court, even though he was often playing out of position as a center. I still don't know why he wasn't starting, but Thomas clearly needs to play a larger role this season.

PLAYOFF HOPES TAKE AN UGLY TURN

It's one game, but this was a back breaker for me. How the hell did we lose to those guys? Without the Blazers best player, LaMarcus Aldridge, and playing at the back end of back-to-backs, the Warriors managed to squander an opportunity get their 4th straight win and remain playoff relevant.

This was as close to a sure win as could be and they blew it. I thought they were getting better with chemistry building and roles being established, but this loss illustrated just how fragile the lineup is. It seems as if everything has to go right for them to win even the most winnable games. The 'scrappy' Warriors did not show up last night, 3 point shots weren't falling, production from the bigs was absent, Monta was benched even when the offense struggled, and Mark Jackson's rotation pattern was questionable at best.

I set a goal of a minimum record of 7-11 for the homestand and they didn't make it. Barring an Ellis for bigman trade, they will likely fall completely out of the playoff race now that the 'easy' part of the schedule is out of the way and tough road games lie ahead.

As if all this wasn't bad enough, Jeremy Lin, our former backup PG, is lighting the sports world on fire. We had him, but let him get away.

If they couldn't beat the depleted and tired Blazers at home, I don't have faith that they can make a run for the 8th seed. It's time to call in the tanks and pivot towards keeping our draft pick. It's the only way to salvage an already dismal season in the making.

MOVING FORWARD TO ADDRESS THE FLAWS

With about a third of the season complete, it's becoming increasingly obvious to everyone that the core is severely flawed. I've been pointing this out for quite some time and I hope the front office finally has the guts to make a big move - namely trading Monta Ellis for whatever they can get.

Flaw Rankings
1. Lack of complimentary front court mate for David Lee
2. Small backcourt a defensive liability
3. Potential star in Stephen Curry being stunted by Monta Ellis' game
4. No true proven point guard on the roster
5. No exceptional talent with two-way ability (offensive and defensive dominance)
6. A front office-by-committee that cannot get itself to commit to a rebuild

The remedies to these flaws can be easily addressed by eliminating whoever is holding back the front office from making big trades from the decision process and committing to moving forward with an eye towards the future, not short term, marginal improvement. If by the end of Wednesday's match-up with the Trail Blazers, they do not have a record of 12-14 or better, they should pivot from an all-out push to the playoffs to insuring that they retain their 2012 draft pick (top-7 protected) at all costs. This could mean playing the prospects (Thompson, Tyler, Jenkins, and Chris Wright) big minutes, resting Curry and his gimpy ankle every other game, and playing Biedrins lots of minutes to pump up his trade value if he does well or contribute to losses if he doesn't.

The biggest remedy to the flaws is to use Ellis as trade bait to get draft picks, veteran help in the front court, expiring deals, underrated prospects or some combination of all four. This move is a must, whether they have a pulse when it comes to the playoffs race or not. The front office should not overvalue Monta and demand equal value back, they should accept the best offer in order to move forward with a proper re-build of the Golden State Warriors.

BIEDRINS AMNESTY

Perhaps one of the most controversial decisions of this lockout shortened offseason was the non-amnesty of Andris Biedrins. It seems that the overwhelming majority of fans are angry that the Warriors decided to use it on Charlie Bell who was an expiring $4M contract. Those fans desperately wanted to use it on Biedrins in order to clear out $27M in cap space over the next 3 years.

In all honesty, if it were my decision, I would have probably done the same thing.

Biedrins is only 25 years old. He's an agile 7 footer (a rarity in the NBA), who has monumental confidence problems - correctable to a degree under the right conditions. Mark Jackson has a way with players, so if I were Lacob, I would put faith in Jackson to build Biedrins back up into a tradable asset worthy of a roster spot on a contender desperate for center depth. There should be a market for him if he can show that he is over his confidence issues and if a team believes that all is needed is a 'change of scenery.' The 'process' of reclamation is underway and it seems to be slowly heading in the right direction.

Using the amnesty on Bell was acceptable in my view, given the situation. Bell, who just appeared drunk to his DYI court hearing, was an unwanted player who had no chance of contributing to the team. Biedrins, on the other hand, was their only viable center option currently on the roster at the time. Jeremy Tyler was not ready and Udoh is undersized for the job as full-time center. At the very least, Biedrins would give them solid backup minutes and 6 fouls a night. The Warriors needed just enough cap space to make a good offer to their number one target, Tyson Chandler. Amnestying Biedrins' contract in order to offer an even higher amount would have been a mistake that the organization would likely have regretted given Chandler's age and limited contributions on the offensive end. Their offer to Chandler was generous enough, and if it weren't for the Knicks amnestying Chauncy Billups to clear cap room, he would probably be a Warrior, albeit an overpaid one. Had the Warrior amnestied Biedrins while losing out on Chandler, they would have had serious depth problems at Center, writen off $27 M over 3 years, and be forced to pay for a starting center and a solid backup as well.

By going hard after DeAndre Jordan next, the Warriors showed that they were not afraid to spend, but at the same time, were not going to be reckless with the cap space they had. Biedrins was supposed to be the backup Center, but it did not happen according to plan. They settled for Kwame Brown, but unfortunately, he got injured early and we are back with Biedrins as the starter. Thankfully, the Brown deal is only for 1 year just like the other free agent signings that rounded out the roster.

Since Biedrins spoke to the media after the January 29th loss to OKC Thunder, he seems to be playing with more passion and energy. Mark Jackson has increased his playing time and he is responding. Although the boxscore doesn't underscore this, he is playing good defense, altering many shots, rebounding, fighting for position, blocking shots, deflecting balls, and tapping missed shots to others for offensive and defensive rebounds. He's having a net positive affect on the game even though he is still not able to contribute in the scoring column. I would like to see more of him in the 4th quarter when the Warriors are fighting to keep leads.

I'm rooting hard for Biedrins and I hope he can get back. If he does, we he becomes tradable, allowing the Warriors to shed some of his salary while getting surplus talent or less defective players in return. If we're lucky, perhaps we can get a 2nd round pick and expirings.

Related Links
Rusty Simmons: Andris Biedrins 'not satisfied' with his season
Golden State Warriors: Biedrins Post Practice Interview (1:40)
Marcus Thompson: 5 Reasons the Warriors Won’t Amnesty Biedrins
Tim Kawakami: Warriors amnesty: Should be Lee, could be Biedrins, but probably will be Charlie Bell
Tim Kawakami: Joe Lacob on the Warriors’ 5-11 start, Mark Jackson, the amnesty decision and more

CRITICAL STRETCH

My initial feelings of how the Warriors are a different team are being put to the test. After a good start showing strong fight and improved defense, they have dropped some close, winnable games. Currently at 5-10, they are now at a critical stretch where the next home-stand consisting of 9 of 11 at Oracle will likely determine the postseason fate. In order to keep pace with the 8th seed hopefuls, they will need to win at least 7 of the 11 to remain relevant.

If the Warriors fail to even win half, I'm afraid it may be time to call off the dogs and allow Curry to rest and develop the youngsters (Thompson, Udoh, Tyler, Jenkins). In what looks to be a very strong draft, it's important for them to position themselves in the standings so that they can end up with a Top-7 pick. The Utah Jazz will get the pick if it is 8th or higher.

Although I'm sick and tired of losing, I'm also a realist...and the reality is, this team needs a serious infusion of talent, and this draft is a great one to get that player. Curry's gimpy ankles and the loss of Kwame Brown for essentially the entire year are valid excuses for a lost season. That should quiet the fans that don't understand the importance of this draft class. Play hard, learn the system, develop chemistry, but do just enough to not mess up your draft lottery chances.

The significance of these next block of games cannot be denied.


Related Links
Adam Lauridsen: Denial and Silence
Matt Steinmetz: Mark Jackson still has no doubt about Warriors
Marcus Thompson II: Golden State Warriors searching for late-game magic
Rusty Simmons: Warriors close to becoming a winner, coach says

NOT THE SAME OLD WARRIORS

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say, this team is going to make the playoffs. Despite all the expert predictions of a win total hovering around 30 and no post season, I feel this team has the right personnel to beat those expectations.

After the first game, many Warrior fans were already hitting the panic button and getting themselves mentally prepared for another sub-500 season.  They played 3 1/2 quarters of very good basketball against a legit contender in the Clippers, until Chris Paul decided to take over, hitting clutch jumper after clutch jumper in the waning minutes of the game. Although the score looked lopsided at the end, anyone watching the entire game and familiar with the Warriors' historic ineptness had to be a little giddy at the sight of good team defense being played and rebound battles being won. Curry AND Ellis had a bad shooting night - this doesn't happen very often. With a typical performance from either of them, the contest would have been much closer and perhaps the outcome different. The new look Clippers are deadly with Paul, Griffin, Billups, Butler, Williams, and Jordan and the Warriors were able to compete with them most of the game despite only having 10 days of training camp to install an entirely new system under a new coaching staff.

Monday night's impressive victory of the East Coast power, Chicago Bulls, confirmed my suspicions that these Warriors are going to be damn good. The starting lineup my be the same, but that's about it. These guys are not your same old Warriors and here's why....

1. These Warriors play scrappy defense (16 steals tonight). They remind me of the 'We Believe' team that played a relentless style of D during the playoff run - quick hands, jumping the passing lanes, causing deflections, and wreaking havoc in a frenetic pace.
2. They can compete with any team on the boards. Warriors were winning the rebound battle at the half and lost most of it in one possession where the Bulls had 3 offensive rebounds sometime in the 3rd Q. The Bulls were the #1 rebounding team in the NBA and the Warriors hung tough with them. The night before, they out-rebounded a very good front line vs. the Clips 48 to 43.
3. They have more shot blockers/changers. McGuire and Rush are good on the perimeter. Udoh, Biedrins, and Brown are great in the paint. Each give the Warriors a different type of defender to run out there whether it be for speed, hustle, length, agility, or strength.
4. The bench is deeper than ever. Each position has a capable backup. PG: Smith and Jenkins, SG: Rush and Thompson, SF: Rush and McGuire, PF: Udoh, C: Brown and Udoh. The second unit may be lacking offensively, but they sure can bring it defensively and play well enough to allow the starters to recharge on the bench without any huge swing in point differentials.
5. The coaching staff, especially Michael Malone, will have this team playing at a consistently high level come February. Over half the roster is new, yet chemistry is looking good. With more court time and player development (rookies and young players), they will be a very dangerous team. 
6. It's likely that Curry will miss several games due to his weak ankles, so it's important to rely on tough team defense to keep games close down the stretch. Mark Jackson's rotation pattern is solid - a far cry from piling on 43+ minutes per night on their starters. There is a good balance of offense and defense thanks to the smart (and low cost) additions to the team: Rush, McGuire, Smith, Jenkins, Thompson, Tyler, and Brown (not so cheap, but 1-year deal). Jackson is not afraid to use his bench and understands that he needs to develop the young talent so they can be ready sooner, rather than later. When Curry is out for the game, I expect to see more of Jenkins. I'm glad to see Thompson get a lot of run despite his slow acclimation to the speed of the game. I could only imagine that Tyler is benefiting immensely from daily practices vs. the vets. This bodes well for later in the season.

Although this may be one of the best years for the Warriors to tank and draft, at some point, they need to start winning in order to attract better talent - baby steps into the playoffs, build a winning culture, then build a reputation as a choice destination for the stars. When Mark Jackson was introduced as the new head coach, he proclaimed that they WILL make the playoffs. I'm a believer.