REPLACING JACK: RODRIGUE BEAUBOIS

6' 2", 185 lbs
Born Feb 24, 1988 in France (Age: 25)
Drafted 2009: 1st Rnd, 25th by OKC

Made just $2,227,333 last season. Restricted Free Agent, but no way Mavs will match while going after Dwight Howard. Beaubois has his flaws, but perhaps a year under Mark Jackson, playing behind Stephan Curry, and a change of scenery will get his career on track.

Massive 6'10" wingspan, athletic, among the top PG's in blocks and rebounds.

With Rush coming back and Bazemore working on his game, the Warriors could play Steph almost exclusively at PG and give the backup minutes to Beaubois. When matchups are favorable, Beaubois and Curry can both play on the floor for a small ball look with better ball handling and movement.



ESPN Scouting Report:

+ Speedy guard who can score. Penetrates but doesn't see court well. 
+ Gets out of control on drives. Inconsistent shooter. Good rebounder for size. 
+ Active, athletic defender but needs to improve strength and fundamentals. 

Analysis 
Beaubois intrigued everybody with an impressive rookie year but has gone sideways since, doing just enough to stay relevant but not quite enough to give his career any traction. The problem starts with his being a classic "2 in a 1's body" -- unless he can improve his passing numbers some more; last season he was 47th among point guards in pure point rating. 

Beaubois can score, but he's not efficient enough. Last season he averaged 16.4 points per 40 minutes, which was higher than his previous two, but he neither makes 3s nor draws fouls, resulting in subpar true shooting percentages. Last season Beauhois shot 28.8 percent on 3s and 36.2 percent on long 2s, and the season before wasn't any better. Meanwhile, he was in the bottom third of point guards in free throw rate. 

The tantalizing part is that if he did either of these things -- create for teammates or convert his own shots -- just a little bit better, he'd have some real value. But right now he's just another low-efficiency creator. 

Whether he can become more is an open question. His instincts as a point guard aren't great, I'm not sure his left hand is up to snuff, and while I wouldn't call his jumper broken it's not exactly fluid either. 

Defensively it's a similar story. Beaubois is an impressive athlete who led all point guards in blocks per minute and ranked fourth in rebound rate, but his overall results weren't that great. He was overmatched size-wise when asked to guard 2s, and his plus-minus and Synergy numbers were poor.




If the Warriors want to go cheap, they could probably get Beaubois and Earl Clark or Brandan Wright for a total under $5M. It cuts into the 2014 cap space a bit, but with another year off Lee's deal, it may be easier to trade Lee to create additional cap space to pursue a max salary free agent.

TAKING THE LEAP FOR HOWARD OR STANDING PAT

Although the Warriors are a long-shot to acquire Howard, I keep going back and forth on this, and it's giving me a headache.

Does the roster look better in the next 4 years by making the trade or standing pat?

Consider what we are losing: Barnes (or Klay), Bogut, draft picks (likely 2014), cap flex.

We gain the #1 center when healthy, but what if Bogut comes back to Denver Series form? Frankly, I'll take a healthy Bogut over a healthy Howard because Bogut is such a more well-rounded player, plays with aggression, and is Aussie tough. I understand that he probably won't ever regain his offensive game of old, but if he can change the game enough like he did vs. the Nuggets, that's plenty. With a summer of rest and proper healing, it's very possible that he does return much better than what we've seen as a Warrior.


With Howard (assuming Barnes is traded)
PG: Curry
SG: Thompson
SF: Rush / Green
PF: Lee
C: Howard / Ezeli

* that's an incredible starting 4
* legit Finals contender
* capped out in 2014
* no 2014 draft pick, likely other future picks as well
* have to rely on contract exceptions to add quality depth to that roster
* buyers remorse if Howard's back and shoulder issues return
* regret if Barnes becomes an All-Star and things don't turn out as planned with Howard


Standing Pat
PG: Curry
SG: Thompson
SF: Barnes / Rush
PF: Lee / Green
C: Bogut / Ezeli

* 2014 draft will be historically good
* we'll have greater cap flex to upgrade the bench
* in the conversation for contender IF key players remain healthy
* we'll have max money if we decide not to retain Bogut and about $12M to spend if we do


Although the Warriors would be instant contenders if they pulled off a Howard deal, I wouldn't be mad if we didn't come to fruition. There are a lot more options on the table if the Warriors stand pat. We'll be able to bring back the key players and add to it in 2014. If they continue to get better as expected, adding a star player to the mix in the $12M range would make this team a serious contender. The Warriors are now considered an up-and-coming franchise and with all things equal, the better free agents will choose to sign here.

We'll be able to watch Barnes grow and develop his game as a Warrior. Admittedly, I wasn't convinced he had the 'it' factor when they drafted him because he looked too mechanical on the court, didn't rebound consistently well, didn't have a high assist rate, and disappeared at times. As his rookie year progressed, he became more confident in going to the rim, his shot began to fall in big games, and his freakish athleticism began to translate on the floor in the form of good defense, blow-bys, and thunderous dunks. All the typical signs of a struggling rookie disappeared while playing on one of  the biggest stages the NBA has to offer.

Going for a title with Howard is less of a gamble than going after a title with the the group we have (plus cap space and draft picks). But, if the gamble that the Bogut gives us what he showed vs. Denver, Rush returns to form, internal development of Curry, Thompson, Barnes, Green, and Ezeli take place, and the Front Office target the right players and make the right moves....this team is set to make a more sustainable push towards the ultimate goal, an NBA Title.

SEASON WRAP-UP VIDEOS

ESPN EXPERTS

SCHEDULE THROUGH JANUARY

12/28 - Sixers
12/29 - Celtics
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1/2 - Clippers (2nd of B-2-B vs. Nuggets)
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1/5 - @ Clippers (2nd of B-2-B vs. Lakers)
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1/9 - Grizzlies
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1/11 - Trail Blazers (2nd of B-2-B vs. Heat)
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1/13 - @ Nuggets
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1/16 - Heat
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1/18 - @ Spurs
1/19 - @ Hornets
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1/21 - Clippers
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1/23 - Thunder (2nd of B-2-B vs. Clippers)
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1/25 - @ Bulls
1/26 - @ Bucks (2nd of B-2-B vs. Cavaliers)
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1/28 - @ Raptors
1/29 - @ Cavaliers
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1/31 - Mavericks

Warriors have 6 games in 9 nights to finish January - 4 on the road vs. EC teams

SUMMER LEAGUE ROOKIE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

It could be difficult to compare players just by looking at the standard statistical categories such as points, rebounds, and assists, so the NBA has come up with an Efficiency Statistic which allows one to quickly evaluate a player's overall performance.

Efficiency formula: ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field Goals Att. - Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. - Free Throws Made) + Turnovers))

Click on names to see full stats.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: 24.00
Damian Lillard: 20.50
Terrence Jones: 19.60
John Henson: 19.25
Donatas Motiejunas: 18.50
Bernard James: 18.40
Josh Akognon: 18.00
Meyers Leonard: 16.00
Jeremy Lamb: 15.60
Tyler Zeller: 14.80
Jae Crowder: 14.60
Bradley Beal: 14.00
Will Barton: 13.40
Harrison Barnes: 12.80
Andrew Nicholson: 12.80
Perry Jones III: 12.50
Miles Plumlee: 12.00
Maalik Wayns: 12.00
Drew Viney: 12.00
John Jenkins: 11.60
Royce White: 11.60
Jacob Pullen: 11.33
Kyle O'Quinn: 11.20
Tony Wroten: 11.00
Kent Bazemore: 10.75
Andre Drummond: 10.60
Jared Sullinger: 10.60
Derwin Kitchen: 10.50
Robert Sacre: 10.40
Denzel Bowles: 10.20
Thomas Robinson: 10.20
Evan Fournier: 10.00
Draymond Green: 9.80
Mitchell Watt: 9.80
Doron Lamb: 9.75
Tornike Shengelia: 9.60
Tyshawn Taylor: 9.50
Stefhon Hannah: 9.00
Kim English: 8.60
Scott Machado: 8.60
Mike Scott: 8.60
Kendall Marshall: 8.50
Terrence Ross: 8.40
Brad Wanamaker: 8.00
Drew Gordon: 7.60
Justin Burrell: 7.20
Kevin Murphy: 7.00
Dion Waiters: 6.67
Fab Melo: 6.60
Josh Owens: 6.50
Orlando Johnson: 6.20
Maurice Harkless: 6.00
Festus Ezeli: 5.80
Joe Ragland: 5.60
Kris Joseph: 4.80
Henry Sims: 4.25
Austin Rivers: 4.00
Marquis Teague: 1.60

JEREMY TYLER'S SHORTCUT

Jeremy Tyler skipped important steps in his development - 1 more year of high school ball and 1 year of college to learn the basics of his craft. His size and athleticism allowed him to dominate weaker competition in San Diego, but it gave him an inaccurate picture of where he stood relative to all the other star high school players who shared the same dream. Tyler thought he was ready for the pros, but was in for a rude awakening after forgoing his senior season to play professionally in Israel.

Once you get to the pros, they assume you know the basics and don't have the patience to coach you from ground up. Instead of gradually building a solid foundation, he was forced to work with what he knew and try to use it against grown, seasoned pro players 5 years older and wiser. It was a recipe for disaster and most of the blame falls on his parents. The shortcut to the pros might have netted him a early payday, but it may cost him the ability to earn millions more in the long run.

It wasn't until he got to Japan that he was able to receive personal attention from a reputable coach in Bob Hill (former Pacers coach). It was the first positive step he has taken in the journey, but it's going to take a lot more time and quality coaching to erase the bad habits from his game and to rebuild that confidence and self-awareness he so sorely needs. If the Warriors want to get the most of their raw Bigs (Tyler and now Ezeli), it would be of the utmost importance to hire the best big man coach money can buy.

It a recent interview with Rusty Simmons, he said,

"You know that perfect you, the one you see in your dreams?" Tyler said. "I realized that I've never seen myself that way in reality. I came in believing that I was already all-everything. Now I know that there are a lot of guys who are better than me. Once you start respecting the skill in this league, you start getting a lot better."

Sounds like he finally realizes that he's not as good as he thought he was. He's behind the curve now and it's up to Tyler to commit to the work ethic and mental toughness required to catch up to the rest of his peers.