Saturday, July 31, 2010

KYLE WEAVER : BACKCOURT ADDITION



Recently, Kyle Weaver was released by the Oklahoma City Thunder. Although Weaver was often injured, when he did play, he proved to be a capable defensive-minded guard. At 6'6", he would make for a great addition to a defensively challenged backcourt of the Golden State Warriors. Not only would he be able to play point guard and shooting guard, but with his size he would be able to play some small forward to back up Dorell Wright and Reggie Williams. Weaver had a promising rookie season, shooting 46% fg and 34% 3pt in limited minutes. Due to injuries, his stats went down but he was able to shoot 37% from three point range. I believe Weaver is in under-valued target the Warriors should try to acquire. (Career Stats and Totals)

The Warriors opted to pick up free agent Jennero Pargo a few days before Weaver's release, giving the Warriors another option at point guard. I was not a fan of the acquisition, particularly because there are better options with more upside, but Pargo would be a good veteran presence to help the young backcourt develop.

Warriors Depth Chart:
PG: Curry / Lin / Pargo
SG: Ellis / Bell
SF: D. Wright / Williams / Radmanovic
PF: Lee / B. Wright
C: Biedrins / Gadzuric / Udoh

There are two more slots open on the roster, and it is clear that the Warriors still need a perimeter defender and another big man to shore up their frontcourt. The top priority would be to try and trade Charlie Bell's contract which runs into the 2012 season. This might be a difficult task considering his value, but it would open up more playing time for a better option in the backcourt, open another roster slot, and clear capspace for the upcoming offseasons. I would like to see Ellis and Bell paired together in a deal to bring in a star small forward or a shooting guard (Iguodala) that it's better suited to play alongside Stephon Curry.

If a deal cannot be reached, the second priority would be to add another big man. Tops on my list are:

1. Louis Amundson
2. Kyrylo Fesenko
3. Earl Barron
4. Chris Hunter

Anthony Tolliver would be a nice pickup, but I think a bigger, more physical big would be in order.

The third priority would be to add another perimeter defender like Kyle Weaver. I love his versatility, and his desire on the defensive end. He could be the designated stopper allowing Curry and Ellis to focus more on scoring instead of tiring out on the defensive side of the ball. Granted Weaver might have better options playing for a contender, but the Warriors would be a destination where Weaver can log in plenty of minutes. It would be nice to have one open slot during the season, but Weaver might be worth giving up that last spot if they can get him at a cheap price.



Monday, July 19, 2010

EXIT WATSON, ENTER LIN?


The trend of not matching free agent offers continues and the bench becomes more and more depleted. Watson is on the verge of signing with the Bulls and in return, the Warriors will get a future pick (2nd Rounder?) and a Trade Exception.

I'll miss Watson's knack for disrupting the passing lanes and clutch shooting down the stretch, but if he's being offered the rumored $10.2M over 3 Years deal, then I'd have to pass in order to preserve our cap flexibility for the coming off-seasons. Until we have solidified our starting lineup and are ready to make a serious playoff push, I think it's wise to steer clear of pricey, multi-year contracts for role players.

As a replacement, I'd go after Jeremy Lin. He's a more realistic target than Patty Mills since the deep pocketed Blazers will most likely match anything we can offer. I didn't know much about Lin's game, quite frankly, until I started doing more research recently after seeing him play very well in Las Vegas. He's exciting, pushes the tempo, has a high basketball IQ, can shoot the 3, is a good steals guy, plays good defense, and is fearless going to the rim. The crowd would love him and he already has a big Bay Area following because of his Asian American ethnicity and Palo Alto ties. He's a huge Warriors fan and his favorite player is Curry. Lin also says that playing for the Warriors would be a dream come true because he grew up a fan, so that's got to give the Warriors an edge in any bidding war. .

Right now, Dallas, the Lakers, and a few other teams have shown interest in signing Lin. With the departure of Watson, the Warriors could probably give him the most playing time and fulfill his childhood dream of playing for Golden State. Now that Morrow and Watson off the books, the Warriors shouldn't have any problems committing to whatever modest salary it would take to land him. So what are we waiting for.....GET LIN!!!!


Draft Express Scouting Report:

NCAA Weekly Performers, 12/18/09
December 18, 2009
Jonathan Givony

It’s not often that a player from the Ivy League conference is able to break through and establish himself as a legitimate NBA draft prospect, but that’s exactly what Jeremy Lin has done this season. Strong performances against UConn (in a narrow loss) and Boston College (a road win) have propelled him directly into the national spotlight, culminating in a feature story on ESPN.com last week.

Lin’s physical tools are less than ideal when compared with most NBA guard prospects, as he’s a 6-3 combo guard with a narrow, but strong frame that he’s absolutely made the most of, and a wingspan that appears to be below average. He has good, but not great athleticism, showing very nice quickness in the open floor and some solid leaping ability, but clearly isn’t the most explosive player around.

Offensively, Lin is an exceptionally efficient player, shooting 60% from inside the arc and 37% from outside it, while getting to the free throw line at a terrific rate—almost 10 times per-40 minutes pace adjusted. He is not what you would call a stellar ball-handler, but is excellent on the pick and roll and is very aggressive looking to get to the basket.

Although he plays mostly off the ball for Harvard, he is pretty much their main facilitator and clearly the player his teammates look to early and often. He executes his team’s plays extremely well and is highly unselfish, showing very nice court vision whipping crisp passes around the court confidently, always looking to make the simple, fundamental play. It would be nice to see Lin get a little more time at the point guard spot for Harvard, but based on what we can tell he seems to have very good instincts as a playmaker.

Lin's biggest weakness would clearly be his propensity for turnovers, he tends to get called an awful lot for traveling violations, and seems to struggle finishing around the rim in traffic. Lin’s left-hand is noticeably weaker, both creating shots and finishing them, and he generally has trouble in the half-court if he can’t beat his man initially with his very quick (and very long) first step.

As a shooter, Lin sports somewhat unorthodox mechanics, kicking his legs out violently and often fading away excessively on his pull-up jumpers, but is able to make up for that and then some with his innate shot-making ability. He doesn’t take all that many shots from behind the arc—a little over 3.5 per game over the past three years—but he makes the ones he takes at a pretty solid rate, even if there is clearly room for improvement.

One thing that Lin does do exceptionally well is fill up the stat-sheet in every way possible. Besides being a terrific (and extremely efficient) scorer, he generates a large amount of rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, and beyond the numbers seems to have nice toughness and a very good feel for anticipating plays and being around the ball.

Defensively, Lin is a pretty serious guy (as he is in all aspects of the game), but there may be some question marks about his potential here at the NBA level, as he lacks great size or length, and isn’t the strongest or most athletic guy in the world. This is something he will have to really work to dispel in private NBA workouts as he’s matched up with other top guard prospects in one on one, two on two and three on three situations.

Lin has a number of things going for him, and is clearly a prospect teams should take note of. His gaudy stats, strong intangibles and excellent basketball IQ will all work in his favor, but he still has plenty of work ahead of him if he’s to be drafted and/or make an NBA team. Strong showings against the likes of Georgetown, Seattle University and George Washington would surely help his cause, as would making the NCAA tournament, and accepting his invite to play at the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament, a place where he could really help his stock.













Sunday, July 18, 2010

POLL RESULTS: DRAFT GRADE


Polls have not been working properly lately. Seems that some of the votes were not counted and all new polls aren't registering votes. At any rate, here are the results of the last poll that closed.

WHAT DRAFT GRADE WOULD YOU GIVE THE WARRIORS?

C : 9 votes (32%)
B : 6 votes (21%)
D : 6 votes (21%)
F : 4 votes (14%)
A : 3 votes (10%)

Most readers that were able to cast a vote thought the draft deserved a 'C' grade. Obviously, with the wrist injury that will sideline our sole draft pick, Ekpe Udoh, until January, it will be tough to judge without having seen him play in the Summer League vs. NBA level competition. We'll have to wait and see how good he is but there are several drafted after him that excelled in Orlando and Las Vegas play.

Derrick Character
Greg Monroe
Daminon James
Paul George
Dominique Jones
Quincy Pondexter
Ed Davis
Larry Sanders

I voted that the Warriors receive a 'C' based on Udoh's college career and the fact that used the 2nd Round Pick as a way to ditch Maggette's bloated contract. It would have been nice to have been able to use it on Derrick Character, but you can't win them all. Udoh was a safe pick based on need, and one that most 'experts' thought was a stretch at #6. Safe and need based picks usually result in disappointment. So far, the trend continues.

Saturday, July 17, 2010

FREE AGENTS: WHO'S LEFT, WHO FITS


I was thrilled when the top player on my free agent wish list, Dorell Wright, was signed to a good deal. I envision that he would be a perfect fit to play in Don Nelson's system of skilled, versatile, athletic, multi-dimensional players who can do two or more of the following well: score, pass, rebound, and defend. Wright does all four, with passing being his weaker attribute and defending his strongest.

Current Depth Chart
PG: Curry / Watson
SG: Ellis / Bell
SF: Wright / Williams
PF: Lee / Wright / Radmanovic
C: Biedrins / Gadzuric / Udoh

If Biedrins can get healthy, the starting 5 looks pretty good, especially at PG with Stephen Curry and at PF with David Lee.

Ellis is one of the top scorers in the league, but it is imperative that he evolve into a more well-rounded player that contributes in other ways other than just scoring. Monta has shown flashes of good defense, but the desire is not there consistently. Steals come naturally, but all to often, his man gets past him and the bigs are forced to over-compensate for his poor defensive effort, leading to easy baskets or offensive rebounds. Although Monta is not quite a natural PG or willing passer, he adds value to his team by being a good rebounder for his position. As his game matures, I look forward to seeing all four aspects of his game to improve. He has the incredible physical gifts, he needs to take it to the next level with mental toughness and determination.

The SF position is still up for grabs, but my early leader is Dorell Wright. Reggie Williams may be more talented offensively, but as a role player, I believe Wright would be better served as one of the starting 5. His defense and rebounding at the SF position compensate for the lack of length in the backcourt and the suspect defense at PF. Williams would be the ideal 6th man because of his versatility and multi-faceted game. He'll be instant offense for the Warriors bench and has some ability to help initiate the offense and get the ball to others.

Being comfortable with the starting 5 and 6th man, it's time to address the depth that once was a particular strong suit just weeks ago before the Lee for Randolph, Turiaf, and Azubuike trade and the subsequent decision to not match the Nets' offer to Anthony Morrow.

Barring an outrageous offer for C.J. Watson, I think the Warriors should match when the time comes. He's an underrated playmaker one of our best stealers because of his knack to play the passing lanes. Watson will be able to backup both guard positions. If we lose him I would love to go after a true PG to take his place.

The bench of the front court consists of Brandan Wright, Radmanovic, Gadzuric, and Udoh. It would be unwise to think that Wright can be counted on to provide big, productive minutes for the PF spot off the bench due to his durability issues. Udoh is out until at least January, so that leaves the Warriors in bind at the PF/C position. The priority for GM Larry Riley should be to fill this void with free agents that fit the system. We need more defense and rebounding plus a big that can shoot from outside in order to open up the lanes for the guards.

With new ownership, the fans may be clamoring for a quick fix, big signing, or a big salary commitment that would do away with our salary cap flexibility for the next two offseasons, but I'm hoping that our new owner, Joseph Lacob, will exercise patience and not go after a mid-level talent that we will regret signing later. There are bigger fishes to be had in the offseason (especially in 2012) if we aim towards having cap space to sign a max salary player.

There are a few players I'd like to trade for, like Andre Iguodala, but if the Warriors can't get a player of his caliber and versatility, they should hang on to their expirings (Radmanovic and Gadzuric) and try to trade Charlie Bell and his overpriced 2 year deal in a package for cap relief. If Brandan Wright doesn't pan out and Bell is off the books, the Warriors will have immediate cap space to sign a max salary player next offseason.

For now, the Warriors should go after smaller fish on shorter, cheaper deals in order to keep their options open. There are 3 more roster spots available, but I expect the Warriors to fill two and leave the third for a mid to late season pick-up when the depth chart is revised due to injuries. First priority should be to add another big. Second would be to add another long, wing player capable of defending SG's and SF's.

Here is an updated list of targets for free agents that best fit the system, team need, and could be had at a reasonable price on a short contract. It's important to have veterans to teach the young ones the ropes, so even though they might not be as talented as the other available free agents, they trump them with their experience, character, and veteran savvy on the court.

01. Louis Amundson - PF/C (toughness, rebounding, defense, agility)
02. Kyrylo Fesenko - C (rebounding, defense, upside, has jump shot)
03. Damien Wilkins - SG/SF (point forward skills, defense, scorer, toughness)
04. Anthony Tolliver - PF (scoring, 3 pt range, rebounding)
05. Matt Barnes - SF/PF (toughness, 3 pt range, rebounding, defense)
06. James Singleton - SF/PF (toughness, defense, rebounding)
07. Chris Hunter - C (jump shot, size, rebounding, cheap)
08. Oleksiy Pecherov - PF/C (good shooting range, blocks, rebounding, skilled, cheap)
09. Ime Udoka - SF (defense, 3 pt range, toughness)
10. Rasual Butler - SF/SG (scorer, 3 pt range, long, athletic)
11. Keith Bogans - SG (defense, 3 pt range, toughness)
12. Devean George - SF (3 pt range, chemistry, defense)
13. Shavlik Randolph - PF (shooting, rebounding, cheap)

Land best available big man and best available wing player. Leave the 15th spot open to audition the next D-Leaguer find after the season starts.


Potential Depth Chart
PG: Curry / Watson
SG: Ellis / Bell / Wilkins
SF: D. Wright / Williams / Radmanovic
PF: Lee / B. Wright / Udoh
C: Biedrins / Amundson / Gadzuric

Thursday, July 15, 2010

POLL RESULTS: WHAT TO DO WITH NELSON



WHAT SHOULD NEW OWNERSHIP DO WITH DON NELSON?

Fire him : 49 (59%)
Coach final year : 15 (18%)
Coach, then move to GM : 11 (13%)
Move to GM : 7 (8%)

Votes so far: 82


Eerie timing for this poll to close on the exact same day that the Warriors change ownership. Joseph Lacob is a friend of Cohan and as been a season ticket holder for the past 10 years. He's an extremely intelligent individual who's witnessed first hand the Warriors' coaching carousel and may decide to stick with Nelson for the remaining year on his contract. With the exception of a few seasons where injuries devastated the roster and he had to shift into 'tank' mode, Nelson has had the most success as coach for the Golden State Warriors.

Had Ellison been named the new owner, Nelson would most likely be axed, but cooler heads may prevail and Lacob may decide that what's best for the team is that Nelson be allowed to see his vision through with the assembled talent built for his system. My guess is that Nelson will be coach at the start of the season. The master of Nellie-ball will coach his final NBA games as a Warrior, adding wins to his All-Time Coaching Victories record.


Related Link
Nelson hopes to coach Warriors in '10 - ESPN

ELLISON BLINKS, LACOB TAKES THE REIGNS

In a major upset, the favorite for new owner of the Golden State Warriors, Larry Ellison, was out-bid by an ownership group head up by Joseph Lacob (primary) and Peter Guber (secondary). Ellison is not accustomed to losing when it comes to takeovers of this magnitude, but Lacob's Group was willing to pay the asking price of $450 million.

Although nearly everyone was rooting for Ellison to win the bidding war, his ego would not allow him to go above the price HE believed the Warriors were worth and let Chris Cohan win. $50 million is nothing to Ellison, the 6th richest person in the world. I'm disappointed that he was not willing to swallow his pride and do what all die-hard Warriors fans dreamed would happen - take over and use his fortunes to turn Golden State into the destination of choice for NBA players.

At any rate, it's good to know that Cohan is out and a group of well-financed owners are willing to shell out record amounts to grab the ownership reigns of a Warrior franchise that has been severely mismanaged for the past 15 years. Lacob is currently 10% owner of the Celtics (must sell now) and is a savvy venture capitalist and Stanford Grad who makes his home in the Bay Area.


Biographies from Press Release
Joe Lacob, Managing Partner, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers
Joe Lacob is a Managing Partner with Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, the world’s leading venture capital firm. Since 1987, Lacob has been closely involved with KPCB’s investments in over 50 life science companies, including the start-up or incubation of a dozen ventures with KPCB’s medical technology practice, which includes over 30 therapeutic and diagnostic medical device companies. Joe is also an active investing partner in KPCB’s Internet company initiative; he led the firm’s investment in AutoTrader.com and Sportsline. Most recently, Joe has focused on energy investments as part of KPCB’s growing initiative in the fields of Greentech and alternative energy. Investments include SunDrop Fuels, a solar-based fuels company and an incubation in novel geothermal energy. 
Lacob’s interest and experience in sports goes back two decades. In the 1990’s, he was the earliest institutional investor and helped build Sportsline, one of the pioneers in sports on the internet. Most recently, as part of the new Boston Celtics ownership group led by Wyc Grousbeck, Lacob earned a championship ring in 2008 when the Celtics won their 17th NBA title. In his position, Lacob served on the Celtic’s basketball committee that led their late decade turnaround. Lacob also was a primary investor and pioneer of women’s professional basketball, known as the American Basketball League (ABL). Lacob has been involved with Stanford basketball for over 25 years and is a fixture in his courtside seats at Maples Pavilion.
Lacob currently serves on the Board of Directors of two public companies, Align Technology and Orexigen, as well as several other privately-held companies including Ophthonix, NeuroPace, TherOx, Arresto Biosciences and TransMedics. 
Lacob is actively involved in industry organizations including the American Heart Association and the AHA Roundtable. He is also very involved at Stanford University, serving on advisory boards at the Medical Center, Business School and Athletic Department.
Joe received his Bachelor’s in Biological Sciences from the University of California at Irvine, his Master’s in Public Health from UCLA and his M.B.A. from the Stanford Graduate School of Business. 
Most importantly for Warrior’s fans, Lacob has supported his local franchise the last decade by being a season ticket holder.



Peter Guber, Mandalay Entertainment Group Chairman 
Peter Guber has been a force in the entertainment industry for over thirty years. As a producer, among the many films he brought to the screen are Rain Man, Batman, Flashdance, The Color Purple and Midnight Express. He has been Studio Chief at Columbia Pictures, Co-founder of Casablanca Record & FilmWorks, CEO of PolyGram and Chairman of the Board and CEO of Sony Pictures Entertainment. 
In 1995, Guber and his partner Paul Schaeffer, who will also be an owner of the team, founded the Mandalay Entertainment Group, which over the years has financed, produced and distributed numerous motion pictures including Donnie Brasco, Enemy at the Gates, The Score, Seven Years in Tibet, Sleepy Hollow, television series and high-profile television movies. He also took a strategic ownership position in Dick Clark Productions whose media assets included the Golden Globes and The American Music Awards. 
Mandalay Sports Entertainment has become a national sports entertainment provider, owning and/or managing professional baseball franchises, sports marketing and venue management. Guber is a full professor at the UCLA School of Theater, Film and Television. He speaks professionally at numerous global events, is a weekly on-camera entertainment and media analyst for Fox Business News, and the creator and co-host of the national tv shows, Shootout, and In the House for Starz/Encore and KNBC. 
Guber currently authored his third book TELL to WIN – Connect, Persuade and Triumph With the Hidden Power of Story, due out from Crown in March 2011, and the cover article for the Harvard Business Review and op-ed pieces for numerous papers including the New York Times and the San Francisco Chronicle and Huffington Post.

Related Links
Joseph S. Lacob - Forbes Profile
Peter Guber - Forbes Profile
Guber, Lacob Said to Buy NBA’s Warriors for $450 Million - Bloomberg
Joseph Lacob outbids Larry Ellison to become new owner of Golden State Warriors - Marcus Thompson II
Finally, Chris Cohan has sold the Golden State Warriors - Ball Don't Lie
It’s official: Warriors sale announcement - Tim Kawakami
Galatioto Sports Partners Secure Purchase Agreement - Golden State Warriors
Cohan’s Gone — We’ll Sort the Rest Out Later - Adam Lauridsen
Joe Lacob: “We’re all about winning” - Marcus Thompson II

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

THE EVE OF NEW OWNERSHIP

Today is supposed to be the big day when the Golden State Warriors announce the winning bid for ownership of the franchise. The Warriors are widely considered an undervalued franchise in which the right ownership, direction, and leadership can catapult it to near the top of the NBA. The undying, loyal fan base is there. The large media market waiting to be tapped. The exciting brand of basketball is in place. The practice facilities and headquarters are built. All that is missing is an owner with the smarts, deep pockets, and dogged determination to win at all costs. Almost everyone is pulling for one man.....

LARRY ELLISON

If his name is announced as the winning bidder later tonight, I recommend the Warriors do the following:

1. Hire a new training staff - Tom Abdenour has had a long, productive career, but now is the time for change. Not sure if he's just bad luck or he just can't minimize injuries, but the Warriors have been among the most injured teams in the NBA during his tenure. Throughout the past 16 years of suck, Abdenour is one of the constants that play an integral role in the success or failure of the team. Let's turn the page on the ugly injury history and go in a different direction.

2. Allow Nelson to coach is final year. With the possible exception of Biedrins, all the rotation players are Nellie-approved type talent. I'd love to see his vision implemented another year. Stephen Curry is the true point guard that makes the system run smoothly. Monta Ellis is the unstoppable scorer. David Lee is an intelligent, ferocious rebounder that could score inside. The addition of Dorell Wright gives us an exciting, versatile player who is tailor made for Nellie-ball. Reggie Williams is a great scoring 6th man that can backup multiple positions. Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright, and Ekpe Udoh (when healthy) will provide a mobile core of bigs that can compensate for the defensive lapses of the back court and below average defense of Lee.

3. Give Larry Riley another year as GM. Overall, I'm good with the moves he's consummated since taking control. Highlights include drafting Curry, dumping Jackson and Maggette's contract, signing Dorell Wright, finding exceptional D-League talent, and bringing in a proven, All-Star PF in Lee (though I don't like the contract). He has put the Warriors in position to get a max player (or near max) in the offseason of 2012 (sooner if he can dump Charlie Bell and trade Biedrins' contract). I hope he is smart enough to not blow it by signing an overpriced role player. If Kevin Pritchard, ex-GM for the Trailblazers, is available however, move over Riley and let him take over. I like his eye for talent and aggressiveness in deals. He'll be blessed with an unlimited budget again, and he's shown that he knows what to do with it for the most part.

Current financials with estimated contracts for David Lee and Dorell Wright


(click to enlarge image)

4. Fire Robert Rowell. When he tried to delve into basketball decisions (Stephen Jackson extension and most likely the Maggette panic signing), he failed miserably. Granted he managed to maintain profitability on such a perennially awful team, but he needs to be replaced with someone Ellison can trust will do a better job while erasing all traces of Cohan's right-hand man and the losing culture.

5. Sign Shawn Livingston at a reasonable price to replace C.J. Watson. He's a true PG with complimentary skills and traits that would bring more value and success to the team. He's a long defender perfect for causing deflections and judging by Livingston's late-season play last year on the Wizards, he looks like he is sufficiently recovered from his horrific knee injury. It's a risk, but the injury history may be what drives down his contract price, making him a realistic target with what little money is left from the MLE.



Warning: Explicit Lyrics

6. Sign another big man to add depth to our front court. Candidates include: Louis Amundson, Leon Powe, Sean Williams, John Brockman, Oleksiy Pecherov, and Anthony Tolliver.

Possible Depth Chart:
PG: Curry / Livingston
SG: Ellis / Bell
SF: Wright /  Williams
PF: Lee / Wright / Amundson
C: Biedrins / Gadzuric / Udoh

With these main moves, the Warriors will be a better team and will compete for a playoff spot. Manage the cap space wisely, and they will be on their way to contending. The combination of Ellison, an up-tempo style of play, loyal fan base, a trend toward winning, and California destination will turn the Warriors Franchise into a place that will attract big time free agents and players that want off of their current teams. The max cap space can finally mean something. When this happens, look out NBA, it's 'We Believe' x 10.


Related Links

Larry Ellison - Wikipedia
Source: Larry Ellison is one of two finalists to purchase Warriors
Larry Ellison Profile - Forbes
Could Ellison buy the Warriors TODAY? What we know now…

Thursday, July 8, 2010

FINANCIALS AFTER DAVID LEE TRADE


I can't say that I'm happy with this trade considering I'm a big Anthony Randolph fan, but I understand the motivation. It's a gamble to take the known, very good player in Lee over the unknown, potential star in Randolph, but the trade is starting to grow on me the more I think about it. We may get burned badly if Randolph turns out to be a star that can play both ways, but at least the Warriors get an All-Star in return, though at a fairly steep price. A detailed evaluation of the trade will be posted later, but for now, here is how the Warriors Financials look with Lee's estimated new contract of $80M over 6 years.


(click to enlarge graphic)

C.J. Watson and Morrow are restricted free agents, so their salaries are in flux. I would guess that they would match most deals for Morrow. As for Watson, they may let him go if the price is too high. It's also my hope that they are not done trading and that they will try to land a young star small forward that can defend - someone in the mold of Trevor Ariza or my dream acquisition, Andre Iguodala. If the Sixers love the newly drafted Evan Turner, they may be willing to trade Iguodala in order to cut payroll and gain cap flexibility.

Thursday, July 1, 2010

FREE AGENT TARGETS UNDER THE RADAR

While wise teams that positioned themselves to have max cap space vie for the services of LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Dwayne Wade, etc, the Warriors are capped out and will likely settle for a modest addition to the roster. When I say modest, I mean MODEST. Teams are throwing money at players from the opening bell of free agency. Players like Drew Gooden, Darko Milicic, Amir Johnson, and Charlie Frye are cashing in with contracts that eclipse their perceived market value. The Warriors will just have to wait and see what happens, hope that no one throws an unbelievable offer at Anthony Morrow or C.J. Watson so that they can keep them, see who is left when the dust settles, and make a reasonable offer to add a quality piece to the roster.

As of now, there are 14 players under contract. The primary need is a starting quality SF, but the Warriors could use another backup point guard since the only 'true' point is Stephen Curry. At least six teams have shown interest in Morrow, so the need to replace him with another lights out shooter may be a possibility in a few weeks. But for now, Warriors should look for young, talented, athletic, character guys with versatility, and who are able to excel in two or more of the following areas: shooting, defending, rebounding, passing.

With big hefty expiring contracts in Radmanovic ($6.9M) and Gadzuric ($7.2M), the Warriors would be wise to hold on to them until a they expire so they have lots of cap space to pursue a star in 2011. If a deal for a star comes and it knocks them off their feet, by all means, do the deal, but be careful not to blow your future cap space on fools gold when we are no where near contending anyways. Because the Warriors are finally on the verge of fiscal cap health, I would not recommend using the Full Mid-Level Exception on anyone. Hold off until 2011 when fewer teams have money to spend and more favorable contract rules are in place.

Current Roster (my ideal depth chart)
PG: Curry / Watson / Bell
SG: Ellis / Williams / Morrow
SF: Randolph / Azubuike
PF: Wright / Udoh / Radmanovic
C: Biedrins / Turiaf / Gadzuric

Here are my favorite under-the-radar free agent targets based on what the Warriors need and on a shoestring budget....

1. Dorell Wright (UR) 24 y.o. - athletic, rebounds, shooter, nice fit for system
2. Shawn Livingston (UR) 24 y.o. - passes, perimeter defense
3. Patrick Mills (R) 21 y.o. - tempo pusher, true PG, scorer, upside
4. Linas Kleiza (R) 25 y.o. - tough, defender, shooter, rebounds
5. Dominic McGuire (R) 24 y.o. - athletic, rebounds, passes, nice fit for system
6. Javaris Crittenton (UR) 22 y.o. - passer, finisher, athletic
7. Sergio Rodriguez (UR) 23 y.o. - true PG, shooter, upside
8. Oleksiy Pecherov (UR) 24 y.o. - big that can shoot, rebounds, blocks
9. Anthony Tolliver (UR) 24 y.o. - shooter, good all-around skills

Other players that I'd like to target but are likely too expensive: R. Brewer, K. Lowry, T. Outlaw.

Considering the Warriors are so young and are in need of veteran leadership, they may simply go with a Devean George type player - one that won't demand playing time and will mentor the young players. Guys that come to mind:

Kurt Thomas
Anthony Carter
James Singleton
Keith Bogans
Joe Smith
Ime Udoka
Damien Wilkins
Juwan Howard
Rasual Butler